000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251015
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N78W 7N90W 6N101W 6N110W 6N120W
6N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 109W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE THE NE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 31N112W SW THROUGH 24N115W 
20N122.5W 18N127W AND THEN W TO 17N137W. A RATHER EXTENSIVE 
MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH ORIGINATES FROM THE 
ITCZ SECTION W OF THE AREA SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 
10N152W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EVIDENT WITHIN 740 NM SSE OF 
THE TROUGH. IT CONTINUES TO STREAM ENE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
AND THEN NEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE WRN PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 15N140W AND EXETNDS ENE THROUGH 14N125W 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 18N117W 
AND NE TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO AT 24N108W. MAXIMUM SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET ARE IN THE 80-120 KT 
RANGE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE JET E OF 
115W. THIS JET IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME 
DESCRIBED ABOVE AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ITS N UP TO 
25.5N 

N OF 25.5N UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING OBSERVED PROGRESSING
SWD INTO THE AREA AROUND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE CREST THAT 
EXETNDS FROM THE WRN UNITED STATES SWWD TO WELL W OF 140W. WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 6N130W NW TO 12N137W AND
ALONG 5N BETWEEN 115W-130W. THE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS 
GENERALLY SWLY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH...EXCEPT 
W OF 125W FROM 8N-15N. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN
OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 5N98W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NNE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND REACHING AS FAR N AS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS 
IDENTITY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DIFFLUENT TO
THE SE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE
AND 117W...AND IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC SWWD TO OVER PANAMA...AND 
RESUMES FURTHER S TO NEAR 7N84W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF 106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER COLOMBIA
...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE E OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED 
NEAR 32N137W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 28N126W
25N117W TO 21N110W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 15N AND W OF 109W. 
BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS MOVING W ARE VISIBLE FROM 10N-27N AND W OF 129W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ E OF 105W.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON...THEN QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE 
NRN PORTION AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUE. THE FRONT WILL BE 
FOLLOWED BY STRONG N-NE WINDS AND LARGE SEA PERSISTING THROUGH 
WED OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

GAP WINDS...N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 20-25 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT 
IN 24 HOURS AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 36 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE