000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...2N79W  6N88W  6N104W  8N118W  1N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS
FROM 109W TO 120W AND 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 130W.


...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT FOUR CORNERS IN SW CONUS HAS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW TO 21N120W TO 17N140W WITH VERY DRY AIR 
MASS ALOFT WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS.  SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE...300 NM WIDE...ADVECTED NE UNTO S CENTRAL MEXICO BY 
120 KT JET CORE SE OF TROUGH AXIS.  MOISTURE PLUME SOURCE IS 
MAINLY ITCZ CONVECTION DEBRIS PRODUCED BY WEAK TROUGH ALONG 118W
WHICH IS IN TURN ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER 
AREA S OF 14N W OF 115W ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ENTER E 
PAC AND AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK SHEAR ZONE S OF 
10N ALONG 107W SEPARATES RIDGE FROM LARGER ONE OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA WHICH DRIES AIR MASS E OF 107W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES 1025 MB AT 31N138W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N107W PRODUCING BRISK TRADES W OF 120W WHICH 
WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY 48 HRS.  WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW 
CORNER OF BASIN IN 30 HRS WITH BRISK N WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS 
BEHIND IT.  

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN 
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH AND DIE WITHIN 48 HRS AS ATLC 
RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD.

$$
WALLY BARNES