000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...2N79W  4N85W  5N104W  7N111W  5N123W  
1N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 113W TO 129W.


...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT FOUR CORNERS IN SW CONUS HAS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW TO 20N118W TO 18N140W WITH VERY DRY AIR 
MASS ALOFT WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS.  SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE...300 NM WIDE...ADVECTED NE UNTO S CENTRAL MEXICO BY 
110 KT JET CORE SE OF TROUGH AXIS.  MOISTURE PLUME SOURCE IS 
MAINLY ITCZ CONVECTION DEBRIS PRODUCED BY WEAK TROUGH ALONG 115W
WHICH IS IN TURN ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER 
AREA S OF 14N W OF 115W ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ENTER E 
PAC AND AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK SHEAR ZONE S OF 
10N ALONG 107W SEPARATES RIDGE FROM LARGER ONE OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA WHICH DRIES AIR MASS E OF 107W.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1027 MB AT 31N133W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
TO 20N115W PRODUCING BRISK TRADES W OF 120W WHICH WILL SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY BY 48 HRS.  WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN 
IN 36 HRS WITH BRISK N WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS BEHIND IT.  

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN 
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH AND DIE WITHIN 48 HRS AS ATLC 
RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD.

$$
WALLY BARNES