000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241602 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAR 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 5N104W 9N114W 5N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WELL NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH A SHARP TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N116W TO A BASE NEAR 18N122W. SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABOUT 240 NM WIDE...IS NOTED E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A RATHER EXTENSIVE MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH ORIGINATES FROM THE ITCZ SECTION W OF THE AREA TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR 13N155W...IS EVIDENT WITHIN 600 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AND MAINLY SEEN FROM 12N-19N W OF 120W. IT CONTINUES TO STREAM ENE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND CONTINUES FURTHER NE TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE WRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 19N140W AND DIVES ESE THROUGH 17N125W ...AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO AT 27N105W. THIS JET IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME DESCRIBED ABOVE AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ITS N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHING SWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE CREST THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE NW UNITED STATES SWWD TO WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N135W WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NNW THROUGH 11N136W 16N141W. THE FLOW PATTER HAS BECOME MORE W TO SW S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE EAST/WEST ALONG 6N/7N W OF 110W. E OF 110W...THE RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC SWWD TO OVER COSTA RICA...AND FURTHER S INTO THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER WRN COLOMBIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 106W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 13N BETWEEN 110W-121W...AND IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N138W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 28N130W TO 22N115W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING S TO SW ARE VISIBLE FROM 12N-26N AND W OF 121W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER WATERS ADJACENT THE COSTA RICAN/PANAMANIAN BORDER. SCATTERED STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 112W-116W IS ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH AS WELL BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. GAP WINDS...1210 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 36-49 HOURS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA AND INTO THE EXTREME E PACIFIC. EXPECT NE 20-25 KT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MON. GULF OF PANAMA WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN OCCASIONAL N WIND OF 15-20 KT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE FEW DAYS. $$ COBB