000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241026 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAR 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 6N85W 5N95W 10N115W 4N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W-130W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW WELL NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER WRN NEW MEXICO AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... TRAILS A TROUGH SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 26N116W 20N120W TO 19N133W. A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ABOUT 240 NM WIDE...IS SEEN OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 24N-32N E OF 117W AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE S AND SW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY. A RATHER EXTENSIVE MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH ORIGINATES FROM THE ITCZ SECTION W OF THE AREA TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR 13N155W...IS EVIDENT WITHIN 600 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AND MAINLY SEEN FROM 12N-19N W OF 118W. IT CONTINUES TO STREAM ENE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND CONTINUES FURTHER NE TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE WRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N140W AND DIVES SE THROUGH 18N125W...AND THEN CONTINUES NEWD ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO AT 24N107W. THIS JET IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME DESCRIBED ABOVE AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ITS N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHING SWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE CREST THAT EXETNDS FROM NEAR THE NW UNITED STATES SWWD TO WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N135W AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NNW THROUGH 11N136W 16N141W. THE FLOW PATTER HAS BECOME MORE W TO SW S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE EAST/WEST ALONG 6N/7N W OF 110W. E OF 110W...THE RIDGE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC SWWD TO OVER COSTA RICA...AND FURTHER S INTO THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER WRN COLOMBIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 106W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 13N BETWEEN 100W-113W...AND IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N138W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 28N128W 25N118W TO 22N111W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 15N AND W OF 112W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING S TO SW ARE VISIBLE FROM 12N-26N AND W OF 121W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER WATERS ADJACENT THE COSTA RICAN/PANAMANIAN BORDER. SCATTERED STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 112W-116W IS ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH AS WELL BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. GAP WINDS...N-NE 20 KT WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE UNCEASING BRIEFLY TO 20 KT AGAIN ON MON AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL. BOTH THE NAM AND EUROPEAN INDICATE HIGHER WINDS TO 30 KT AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY BUT I DO NOT SEE THE STRONG HIGH OVER MEXICO TO ASSIST IN THE HIGHER WIND RANGES. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA AND INTO THE EXTREME E PACIFIC. EXPECT NE 20-25 KT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF OF PANAMA WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN OCCASIONAL N WIND OF 15-20 KT SUNDAY...SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT DURING THE FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE