000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230322 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAR 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...1N78W 6N93W 7N118W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N96W AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N129W 3N133W 4N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 110W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG 121W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 30N115W NOW SHIFTING NE WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. AN UPPER RIDGE IS COLLAPSING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N W OF 130W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE LIES E TO W ALONG 29N W OF 135W AND IS SPREADING SE WITH TIME. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY OVER THE SUBTROPICS W OF 110W...WITH A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 27N110W 22N120W 27N140W. ANOTHER TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 9N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST NEAR 24N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO AT 22N97W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N CRESTING OVER CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER MOISTURE... FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 134W AND 146W IS ADVECTED NE NARROWING NEAR 15N125W AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS UNDER THE RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 16N88W TO A BASE AT 6N88W. DRY UPPER AIR IS TRAPPED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 121W AND 108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH DEBRIS ADVECTED NE TO ALONG 12N BEFORE EVAPORATING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N137W 19N105W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE ALONG 22N140W 21N122W 24N110W. GAP WINDS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT N WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT SURROUNDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST NLY SURGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS AREA FLUCTUATING ON DURATION OF THESE SURGES AND SW CARIBBEAN WINDS IN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE W OF 75W...SO WILL FORECAST ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND VELOCITY THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ NELSON