000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAR 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...2N77W 6N88W 4N110W 8N118W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N94.5W AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N128W 3N135W 5N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 110W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG 122W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 30N116W NOW SHIFTING NE WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. AN UPPER RIDGE IS COLLAPSING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 24N W OF 130W...WITH A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE MOVING SE NEAR 32N138W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY OVER THE SUBTROPICS W OF 110W...WITH A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 27N112W 23N123W 28N140W. ANOTHER TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST NEAR 24N140W. UPPER MOISTURE...FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 136W AND 145W IS ADVECTED NE AND REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO AT 20N99W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N CRESTING OVER CENTRAL CONUS. DRY UPPER AIR IS TRAPPED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 115W AND 105W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH DEBRIS ADVECTED NE TO ALONG 11N BEFORE EVAPORATING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N137W 19N107W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE ALONG 22N140W 21N122W 24N110W. GAP WINDS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT N WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT SURROUNDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST NLY SURGES 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS AREA FLUCTUATING ON DURATION OF THESE SURGES AND SW CARIBBEAN WINDS IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE W OF 75W...SO WILL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ NELSON