000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221020 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU MAR 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 6N90W 5N100W 4N115W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 118W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM WSW OF NRN BAJA IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE DROPPING SSE ABOUT 20-25 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW THROUGH 26N121W TO 23N127W TO 24N132W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE WHICH INCLUDES SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN DIEGO TO BE E AND SE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE E TODAY PASSING OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...THEN LIFTS NEWD SAT ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OVER NEVADA ON SAT. AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE PLUME WITHIN 480 NM SE OF THE TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM THE ITCZ SECTION W OF THE AREA. IT IS STREAMING NEWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO REACHING FURTHER NE TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 90-120 KT ENTERS THE WRN PART OF THE AREA AT 21N140W AND CONTINUES ESE TO JUST S OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 20N130W 20N120W AND NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. THIS JET SEPARATES THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE S OF THE THROUGH FROM MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PUNCHING E AND SE INTO NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SPILLING SEWD INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 133W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N127W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 105W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ENE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE THROUGH 11N117W 14N110W NE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC SWD TO OVER COSTA RICA AND S INTO THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 85W. THE TROUGH IS AIDING STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER WRN COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE E PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS GENERALLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS EVIDENT TO THE E AND SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN 100W-118W SUSTAINING A SPORADIC FLARE UP OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THERE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1035 MB HIGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N139W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N134W AND THROUGH 25N126W TO 19N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 113W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SW-W ARE PRESENT N OF 13N AND W OF 120W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK TSTMS ARE SEEN NEAR THE COAST OF NRN PANAMA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 2N-7N W OF 110W. GAP WINDS...N-NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE FRI NIGHT PER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS SIMILAR TO NOGAPS AND EUROPEAN AS WELL. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA AND INTO THE EXTREME E PACIFIC. EXPECT NE 20-25 KT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TEMPORARILY BEFORE KICKING BACK UP AGAIN ON SAT. $$ AGUIRRE