000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAR 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 7N87W 3N114W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N91W 4N110W 6N122W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N117W 24N126W 21N140W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE DROPPING SE INTO THE TROUGH NEAR 31N122W. JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N146W WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING NE TO BEYOND 40N136W WITH THE UPPER FLOW NOW SPILLING SE ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 134W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 6N116W WITH A RIDGE W TO NEAR 7N138W AND A RIDGE AMPLIFYING N OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEYOND 39N104W. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE E OF 100W. A MOISTURE PLUME... ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W AND 155W...LIES ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 12N137W 20N116W TO BEYOND 36N104W. DRY UPPER AIR IS TRAPPED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 114W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH DEBRIS ADVECTED NE TO ALONG 10N BEFORE EVAPORATING. ONLY A THIN MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED MOVING NE ACROSS W PANAMA WHERE IT SUPPLEMENTED BY ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AN AFTERNOON TSTM OVER THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N138W 19N108W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE ALONG 20N140W 20N130W 28N115W. GAP WINDS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT N WINDS AT 15-20 GUSTS TO 25KT SURROUNDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 9 FT AT 00Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST NLY SURGES 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH 30 HOURS THEN AN INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODELS AREA FLUCTUATING ON DURATION OF THESE SURGES AND SW CARIBBEAN WINDS IN 20-30 KT RANGE W OF 75W...SO WILL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ NELSON