000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 1N80W 7N90W 4N105W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 105W TO 111W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W 23N140W. A 95-110 KT 
JET STREAM SE OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 20N140W TO 24N125W 
WHERE THE WINDS INCREASE TO 120-135 KT...THE JET THEN CONTINUES 
NE TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO NW MEXICO. A BAND OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 3000 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM. 
OTHERWISE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS FROM 21N-30N 
W OF 130W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SPREADING 
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N125W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
NE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SSW ACROSS 
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO 6N88W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT 
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ALONG 7N EXTENDS WWD TO 81W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 
6N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED DRY AIR IS N OF 
THE ITCZ TO 22N E OF 110W.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 18N112W. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N 
OF 22N AND W OF 120W.

$$
DGS