000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171020
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N77W 4N90W 4N105W 3N120W 3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...
AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF 5N107W 4N109W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 114W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 
86W AND 88W JUST OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS..
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
29N117W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N134W
TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
24N137W BEYOND 20N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 21N121W
TO 28N130W. A SEPARATE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORMING
NEAR 10N113W...AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 5N85W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXISTS FROM THE ITCZ TO 14N EAST OF 100W.
 
SURFACE...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 113W.
A RIDGE IS ALONG 16N123W 22N128W BEYOND 30N130W.

A GALE EVENT IS OCCURRING NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
AND IT IS FORECAST TO END AFTER 36 HOURS.

NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 12N EAST OF 95W
IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE WIND SPEED IN THIS AREA MAY BECOME LESS THAN 15 KT
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN RETURN TO 15 TO 20 KT
FROM 17/1800 UTC UNTIL 18/1800 UTC. 

$$
MT