000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 1N798W 3N90W 3N100W 2N110W 2N132W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 5N89W 5N92W 5N95W 4N99W 3N103W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
UPPER LEVEL...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER MEXICO NEAR 30N113W TO 28N119W TO
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N127W. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM 34N122W TO 28N132W BEYOND 22N140W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WITH A RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM 
11N103W TO 28N102W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN
90W AND 116W NORTH OF 10N.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N132W TO 24N125W TO 17N117W.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THEN
TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 0600 UTC 17 MARCH.

THE WIND FIELD FROM 9N TO 11N EAST OF 91W EXPANDS TO NE 20 KT
FROM 0600 UTC 18 MARCH UNTIL 1800 UTC 18 MARCH IN AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN
20 KT FROM 18/1800 UTC UNTIL 19/0600 UTC WHEN THE AREA FROM
10N TO 11.5N EAST OF 89W AGAIN WILL EXPERIENCE NE WINDS 20 KT.

$$
MT