000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 5N95W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 
10N110W AND 8.5N115.3W.

...DISCUSSION...
REX BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE NW DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 22N134W AND RIDGING CENTERED TO THE N NEAR 
30N135W...AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE W. DIVERGENT AREA 
ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS SRN MEXICO. THE UPPER 
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT SHIFTS NEWD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HRS...AHEAD OF ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE ELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N...WITH MODERATE 
TO FRESH SELY FLOW N OF 15N W OF 135W ON WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. 
EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATED FRESH 
TRADES GENERALLY S OF 15N W OF 115W ON SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH 
PRES. QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED MODERATE 
TO FRESH NWLY FLOW OFF BAJA AREA. HIGH PRESS WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
TO ITS S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY SAT AS UPPER RIDGING OVER MEXICO BLOCKS 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W. 

GAP WINDS REMAIN QUIET THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD 
HOWEVER...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROMOTE GAP WIND FLOW INTO GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN