000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 3N80W 8N89W 2N106W 5N122W 
2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 4N86W 4N107W 9N120W 6N127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 9N95W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO A SHARP CREST AT 24N120W. TO THE N OF THIS UPPER 
RIDGE...TWO UPPER CYCLONES HAVE BECOME DOMINATE. ONE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 23N136W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE NEAR 5N128W. 
DRY UPPER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE AND 
IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BUT A BAND OF 
UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE 
ROUGHLY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 27N136W 20N131W 
16N140W. A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N125W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 22N126W WHERE CYCLONIC TURNING IS 
NOTED...AND ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONE MAY BE DEVELOPING. EXCEPT FOR 
THE BAND OF MOISTURE DESCRIBED ABOVE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY  
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W AND N OF THE RIDGE CREST AT 22N BETWEEN 
130W AND 95W. UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IS TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 
100W.

A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC S OF 
8N ALONG 83W. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 5N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 105W WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE NORTHERN 
HEMISPHERE ITCZ.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE UPPERS CYCLONES OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 
28N ALONG 132W IN THE OTHERWISE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 
THE SUBTROPICS W OF 108W. RIDGING IS NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE . 
WEAK TROUGH...ALONG 32N130W 18N107W AND FROM 32N134W 23N144W. 

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME NLY AT 20 KT AGAIN ON SAT. NE WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT THU THEN CHANGE LITTLE 
THROUGH FRI. NLY WIND AREA CONTINUING TO SURGE AT 15 TO 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. 

$$
NELSON