000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 4N77W 5N89W 4N103W 7N120W 2N132W
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 23N136W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER TO 10N128W. FAIRLY DRY IN MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. DIVERGENT UPPER 
FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 115W TO 127W...WHICH IN TURN IS PROVIDING RICH MOISTURE 
PLUME TO THE NE ACROSS SRN MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LOW PRES IS 
MOVING SLOWLY SE...IMPEDED BY MID/UPPER RIDGE OFF BAJA COAST. AT 
THE SURFACE...TROUGH IS NOTED ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 
28N132W TO 21N134W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NW. 
MODELS SHOW THE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUING SLOWLY E THROUGH THU AS 
THE RIDGE OFF BAJA FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EWD. A WEAK REX BLOCK 
BRIEFLY SETS UP BY LATE THU AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO 125W AND RIDGE 
BUILDS TO THE N OFF CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT 
LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...ENHANCING TRADE 
WIND FLOW TO THE S.  

GAP WINDS...STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL ALLOW GAP 
WINDS OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA TO BE ACTIVE. RECENT 
SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST OVER 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KT FLOW TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THU. UP TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN GULF OF 
PANAMA...DIMINISHING LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...20 KT IS 
POSSIBLE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TODAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN