000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 2N79W 2N95W 3N110W 4N120W 3N131W
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPPING SSE 15-20 KT IS 
LOCATED NEAR 24N136W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE TO A BASE NEAR 
11N128W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE E OVER THE 
NEXT 2 DAYS THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NE OVER THE NE PORTION OF 
THE AREA TOWARDS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SAT AND SUN. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE CYCLONE AND IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE CYCLONE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N136W 
TO 21N133W. FURTHER E...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE SW U.S. NEAR 34N100W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION COVERING NRN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
AND ASSOCIATED DRY UPPER AIR IS SEEN N OF 22N E OF 123W...AND 
ALSO N OF 5N W OF 123W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
9N88W AND THEN CONTINUES WWD TO 8N101W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA S OF 15N E OF 102W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS 
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC N OF 4N ALONG 81W. OVERALL...THE 
UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT S OF 7N E OF 95W WITH SOME 
ENHANCEMENT OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ.

A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
110W-130W...IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
8N113W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THEN EWD TO THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION
NEAR 35N136W 1026 MB HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 29N123W
18N112W. BROAD HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 17N AND W OF 
110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 17 KT IS RELOCATED TO ALONG 
118W FROM 6N-15N BASED ON STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND CLOUD SIGNATURE
AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-122W. OTHER
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OF THE MODERATE IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 11N119W TO 12N114W.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH 
TO BELOW 20 KT LATE WED. NE WINDS 20 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0030 UTC LAST
NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST THESE WINDS TO CHANGE LITTLE 
THROUGH 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS.

N WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE