000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 3N78W 1N90W 3N105W 5N120W 4N130W
3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
121W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE DROPPING SSE 15-20 KT IS LOCATED NEAR 25N135W 
WITH A TROUGH S TO A BASE NEAR 12N132W. DRY UPPER AIR WRAPS 
AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED 
OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 31N136W TO 21N133W. FURTHER E...A LARGE DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW U.S. NEAR 33N104W WITH 
ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 22N E OF 109W.  OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
N OF 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W...AND ALSO N OF 5N W OF 122W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
9N90W AND THEN CONTINUES WWD TO 8N101W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA S OF 15N E OF 102W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS 
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC N OF 4N ALONG 81W. OVERALL...THE 
UPPER FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT S OF 7N E OF 95W WITH SOME 
ENHANCEMENT OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ.

A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
110W-130W...IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
8N113W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO APPROACHING THE WEST SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 24N120W 
1021 MB WITH BROAD HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF
ABOUT 14N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT
IS ALONG 124W FROM 6N-15N AS SEEN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
IN THE 1800 UTC PRES ANALYSIS. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W-124W.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH 
TO BELOW 20 KT LATE WED. NE WINDS 20 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTEND N TO INCLUDE MOST 
OF THE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS WITH MODELS HINTING AT OCCASIONAL
SURGES TO 30 KT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PANAMA TILL ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE