000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 5N85W 4N100W 6N112W 5N120W
3N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 93W-99W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N131W WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXTENDING N AND CRESTING OVER NW CONUS. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 140W N OF 15N. DRY UPPER AIR 
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH WHILE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED E 
OF THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N141W 32N137W. 
FURTHER E...A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS 
EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 32N103W AND 
20N116W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 5N128W. A SMALL AREA 
OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 21N113W...
OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 116W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN. A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ W OF
101W IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N125W
TO 8N114W TO 10N107W AND NEWD ACROSS SE MEXICO AND INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC S OF 8N ALONG 
82W. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 8N E OF 103W 
WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS 
STATIONARY NEAR 34N133W WITH BROAD HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BEGIN 
TUE MORNING...AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT TUE AFTERNOON
AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND EXTEND N TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE AREA DOWNWIND OF 
THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 
48 HOURS WITH MODELS HINTING AT SURGES TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
AGUIRRE