000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 1N96W 5N111W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 5N77W 5N86W 3N101W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
5N109W 7N117W 4N127W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS AT 26N134W WITH A SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE CRESTING NEAR 55N122W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED UNDER THE 
RIDGE...ROUGHLY NW OF LINE 23N140W 30N130W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE E 
A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDS SW INTO 
THE AREA THROUGH SMALL UPPER CYCLONES AT 31N106W...20N117W AND 
14N133W TO NEAR 8N145W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF 19N115W...OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N78W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A SHARP CREST AT 8N106W. A MOISTURE 
PLUME... ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 106W AND 
132W...IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 7N113W TO 
26N90W...THEN THE PLUME NARROWS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS E IN UPPER 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E PAC S OF 8N A LONG 
82W. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT S OF 8N E OF 105W 
WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ITCZ E OF 
106W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N130W 
WITH BROAD HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS 20 KT WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BRIEFLY MON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 
20 KT TUE. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 48 
HOURS WITH MODELS HINTING AT SURGES TO 30 KT. 

$$
NELSON