000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081620
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
EQ80W 6N90W 3N105W 5N125W 1N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATE 
STRONG 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 103W AND 100 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 112W TO 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N110W TO 8N135W.
CORE SW FLOW OF 65 KT JUST SE OF TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING W OF 
TROUGH OVER FAR NW PORTION OF AREA MAINTAIN MOIST ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW N OF 17N W OF TROUGH.  THAT LEAVES SWATH OF 5 DEG EITHER 
SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS AS ONLY DRY SLOT W OF 103W.  MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDES MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
TO DRY E PAC N OF 8N E OF 103W...SRN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO AND 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH DRY AIR MASS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 33N132W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO 10N106W MAINTAINING FRESH 
BREEZE ON TRADES W OF 130W N OF ITCZ AND CURTAILING VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS UNDER ITS COVERAGE.

GAP WINDS...GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISH TO 
20 KT BUT REMAIN ALIVE AND READY TO JUMP BACK AS SOON AS 
GRADIENT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA RESPECTIVELY 
STRENGTHEN...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITHIN 48 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES