000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060402
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 4N93W 2N117W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N87W 4N96W 4N102W 
7N110W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N126.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 118W WITH 
AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 27N129W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N111W 20N118W 15N129W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N128W 23N131W...AND ELSEWHERE 
FROM 7N TO 21N W OF 128W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE 
TWO DRY BANDS OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE... 
ROUGHLY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 129W AND 117W. 
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTEND S FROM 7N109W TO THE EQUATOR AT 108W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 4N80W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 10N106W. A MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 132W...IS 
ADVECTED NE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 9N124W TO 
20N112W TO BEYOND 32N109W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE QUITE 
DRY N OF THE ITCZ E OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS 40-55 KT 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE LATE TUE AND 20-25 KT LATE 
WED. GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20-30 KT OVER THE 
WATERS N OF 9N E OF 91W. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURGES TO 30 KT 
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT. GULF OF 
PANAMA...N WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH WED MORNING THEN DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT. 

$$
NELSON