000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...2N78W  5N87W  5N107W  3N118W  5N129W  4N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 113W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N129W TO 
12N140W AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS NE ALONG ITS ERN SIDE N OF 32N.
WEAK 90 KT JET CORE ROUNDS LONGWAVE TROUGH BASE AND BRINGS 
MOISTURE NE TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.  SECOND JET STREAM FURTHER S 
WITH 70 KT IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ TOWARDS SRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NWRN MEXICO.  

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTER AT 9N99W EXTEND E OF 
110W TO WELL ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA AND MAINTAINS AREA OF DRY 
AIRMASS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N TO 25W E OF 
110W.  AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ NEAR 110W.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB JUST N OF AREA HAS WEAK RIDGE EXTEND SE 
TO 19N120W.  TRADES W OF 130W HAVE WEAKENED AND SHOULD REMAIN SO 
TROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE FOR 
NEXT 24 HRS THEN WEAKENING TO GALE FORCE FOR REMAINING OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG NE WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO SPREADING 
N AND W OVER WATERS N OF 9N E OF 93W DIMINISHING BY WED NIGHT.
N WINDS INCREASE IN GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NW WIND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN LESS 
THAN 12 HRS.
    
$$
WALLY BARNES