000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 3N95W 5N105W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 4.1N90.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 98W 
TO 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST 
OF A LINE THROUGH 32N118W 20N120W 6N140W. EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N132.7W AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTH TO NORTH OF 20N IN 24 HOURS 
THEN WEAKEN SOME IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.  A PLUME OF 
MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE ITCZ IS WITHIN 450 NM EAST OF THE 
EAST BOUNDARY OF THE TROUGH AND IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ALL OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN 
TIP AND ALSO OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MEXICO.  ANOTHER AREA OF 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AND IS LOCATED FROM 20N TO 27N FROM 125W TO 133W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THIS AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  EXCEPT FOR THE ITCZ REGION THE AREA EAST OF 
THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR TROUGH IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
A WEAKENING MODERATE RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 
117W.  REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS A WEAK TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SHIP REPORT AT 00Z HAS 
SUSTAINED 47 KT WINDS AND 18 FT SEAS AT 14.2N 95.6W. LATEST 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS ARE NEAR THE MAXIMUM OF 50 KT AND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM FORCE 
MON NIGHT...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WED. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS SPREADING N OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 
93W AND THEN  DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED NIGHT. N WINDS 
INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BY DAWN.
    
$$
LL