000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N100W 2N115W 4N130W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 5N79W 6N109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER TROUGHS EXTEND S INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH A MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N133W 13N127W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER 
AIR IS FOUND WITH THE BROAD TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 23N123W 14N132W 11N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS INDICATED OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THIS DRY SLOT. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS 
DEVELOPING NEAR 7N116W WITH AN INVERTED EXTENDING S ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR AT 115W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 20N80W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 16N111W AND APPEARS TO 
BE RETRACTING E WITH TIME. A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM 
FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 132W AND 138W...IS ADVECTED NE 
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 7N127W TO 27N127W...THEN 
THE MOISTURE PLUME SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH CONTINUING N TO WELL 
BEYOND 32N118W WHILE THE SECOND TURNS E IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW 
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...NARROWS TO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 25N109W TO BEYOND 32N78W.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SHIP REPORT AT 00Z HAS 
SUSTAINED 47 KT WINDS AND 18 FT SEAS AT 14.2N 95.6W. AN 
ALTIMETER PASS AT 20Z SHOWS 8 FT SEAS NEAR 12N92W. LATEST 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL MAX AT 60 KT LATE TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 55 KT MON 
AFTERNOON AND BELOW STORM FORCE LATE TUE...AND BELOW GALE FORCE 
MIDDAY WED. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS 
SPREADING N OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 93W AND THEN  
DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED NIGHT. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT 
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND SURGE TO 20 KT THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT LATE TONIGHT.    

$$
NELSON