000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N100W 2N115W 4N130W 4N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 5N76W 6N92W 4N99W 7N109W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN 
AXIS ALONG 32N133W 13N128W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N124W 15N131W 11N140W... 
MOISTURE IS INDICATED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THIS  DRY 
LINE.  AN UPPER CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING NEAR 8N117W WITH AN 
INVERTED EXTENDING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 115W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 20N80W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 
A CREST NEAR 17N113W. A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM FORMER 
ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 140W...IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 7N129W TO 20N120W...THEN THE 
MOISTURE PLUME SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH CONTINUING N TO WELL 
BEYOND 32N120W WHILE THE SECOND TURNS E IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW 
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
25N109W TO BEYOND 31N97W.

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW IS AT 40-45 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PER A 
LOW RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS AT 1230Z THIS MORNING AND AN 18Z SHIP 
REPORT JUST E OF THE EXPECTED ZONE OF MAX WINDS 13.7N 
94.6W...REPORTING N WINDS 32 KT AND 12 FT SEAS. LATEST GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS WINDS WILL MAX AT 60 KT LATE TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH 
BELOW STORM FORCE LATE TUE...AND BELOW GALE FORCE MIDDAY WED. 
NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 
30 KT TONIGHT AND SPREAD N OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 91W 
MON DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT WED NIGHT. N WINDS INCREASE TO 
20 KT GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND SURGE TO 20 KT THROUGH MID 
WEEK. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TONIGHT.    

$$
NELSON