000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 8N84W 5N96W 6N104W 4N119W 
6N127W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 6N83W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 
130W N OF ABOUT 12N WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 
12N W OF 125W. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH WITH A JET EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 
13N128W AND CONTINUING NNE TO 32N112W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATE WINDS IN THE 70 TO 80 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE JET AXIS. 
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING ALONG 115W N OF 20N. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHWARD 
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 

E OF 110W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER MOST 
OF THIS AREA INCLUDING MOST OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 100W. GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL INCREASE TO 
STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS TO 
NEAR GALE FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
CAB