000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 5N95W 5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINT 5N82.6W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART 
OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE THROUGH 32N125W 18N130W 10N140W.  A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N133W. THE FLOW AROUND THE 
CENTER IS BECOMING LESS CIRCULAR AND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
IT IS CONVERTING FROM SPIN VORTICITY TO SHEAR VORTICITY.  A 
PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST CLOUDS PRECEDES THE SYSTEM AND IS FOUND EAST OF 130W 
TO A LINE FROM 25N110W TO 20N120W TO 10N122W. SHOWERS ACCOMPANY 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ARE LOCATED N OF 26N FROM 125W TO 
131W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 24 
HOURS THEN MOVE SOMEWHAT EAST IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE 23N107W 18N118W 5N120W.  THERE 
ARE THREE AREAS WITHIN THIS REGION WITH MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO CONVECTION. ONE IS CENTERED WITHIN 180 
NM OF THE POINT 7.2N89.6W ANOTHER WITHIN 180 NM OF 7.3N102.4W 
AND THE THIRD IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 90W TO 105W.

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW IS INCREASING RAPIDLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO GALE FORCE AND IN 24 HOUR STORM FORCE. NE WINDS 
20 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT TONIGHT 
AND SPREAD N OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 91W BY SUNRISE 
MON. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF OF PANAMA SUNRISE MON. GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT 
THROUGH SUN AND THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT SUN NIGHT.    

$$
LL