000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 7N100W 4N112W 7N125W 5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 5N81W 5N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF 
6.5N101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 35N135W AND SHIFTING NNE 
WITH TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 32N135W TO 14N132W 
WITH DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 31N123W 23N126W 13N140W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS 
DEVELOPING NEAR 9N111W WITH AN INVERTED EXTENDING S ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR 120W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 20N80W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 15N120W. A MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 
150W...IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
10N130W TO 26N117W...THEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TURNS E IN UPPER 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 30N96W TO 31N80W.

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW IS AT 20 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS 
EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT 
EARLY TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE SUN 
AND STORM FORCE BY LATE MORNING SUN...WITH WINDS TO ABOUT 60 KT 
AROUND SUNRISE MON. NE WINDS 20 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT TONIGHT AND SPREAD N OVER ALL THE WATERS 
N OF 9N E OF 91W BY SUNRISE MON. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF 
OF PANAMA SUNRISE MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT SUN NIGHT.    

$$
NELSON