000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N103W 4N112W 7N126W 5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 6N82W 5N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 
7N100W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 33N136W SHIFTING NNE WITH 
TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 25N136W TO 17N132W WITH 
DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 30N123W 21N130W 14N140W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED NEAR 20N80W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 
15N113W. A MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 150W...IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 300 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N130W TO 26N118W...THEN THE MOISTURE 
PLUME TURNS E IN UPPER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE 
RIDGE...WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N96W TO 32N75W.

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE SUN 
AND STORM FORCE BY LATE MORNING SUN...WITH WINDS TO ABOUT 60 KT 
AROUND SUNRISE MON. NE WINDS 20 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT TONIGHT AND SPREAD N OVER ALL THE WATERS 
N OF 9N E OF 91W BY SUNRISE MON. N WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF 
OF PANAMA SUNRISE MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AND THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT SUN NIGHT.    

$$
NELSON