000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ ALONG...6N77W  7N81W  5N92W  5N126W  3N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W AND FROM 98W 
TO 108W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 128W TO 133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF AREA FROM 32N132W 22N140W 
3N159W.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 31N134W MOVING QUICKLY NE WILL DRAG 
TROUGH INTO E PAC WRN CORNER.  JET CORE 85-90 KT ADVECTING 
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO HIGH LATITUDES INTO NRN BAJA 
AND NWRN MEXICO.  SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH FROM 20N115W TO 
2N99W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS ALOFT CURTAILING ITCZ CONVECTION
TO MINOR DEVELOPMENT.  

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA EXTEND 
DRYNESS INTO SE PORTION OF FORECAST WATERS WHILE MOISTURE 
REMAINS N OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  

...SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032MB AT 35N130W DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN DIMINISHING NE 
TRADES W OF 120W AND NW WIND ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT 24 HRS.

GAP WINDS ARE MAKING FULL SHOW FOR THEMSELVES AS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL CLICK IN STRONG N-NE WINDS TO THE UPPER FRINGES 
OF GALE FORCE...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE...WITHIN 
NEXT 24-48 HRS DUE TO INCREASING PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND 
1006 MB LOW PRES AT 6N97W.  ALTHOUGH EVENT MIGHT BE 
SHORT-LIVED...AS LOW PRES MOVES W...IT WOULD DEFINITELY COULD BE 
THE STRONGEST THIS SEASON.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA SURGE TO 25 KT WITHIN NEXT 12-24 
HRS N OF 9N E OF 91W AND COULD ALSO GET GUSTS REACHING GALE 
FORCE EARLY MON AS GFS SOLUTION INDICATES THESE SPEEDS AT 925 MB 
IN MIDST OF GOOD MIXING.  

N WIND INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF OF PANAMA BY MIDDAY MON.    

$$
WALLY BARNES