000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS ALONG LINE...6N77W 5N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINTS 5.6.2N84.4W AND 4.4N96.3W AND 
5N103.8W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE 
AREA NW OF A LINE 32N128W 20N130W 11N140W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N136W AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST.  
BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 30N115W TO 
5N135W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THIS AREA THROUGH 
24 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW.

THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH PART OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO 15N120W TO 5N123W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 136W TO 15N AND IS MOVING WEST 
10 TO 15 KT.  OTHERWISE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST 
OF 110W.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT EARLY SAT NIGHT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 
SUNRISE SUN AND STORM FORCE BY LATE MORNING SUN...WITH WINDS 
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE A POSSIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE MON. NE WINDS 
20 KT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL SURGE TO 25 KT THROUGH SUN THEN 
INCREASE OVER ALL THE WATERS N OF 9N E OF 91W BY SUNRISE MON 
WITH A MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE NEAR 11N87W MON MORNING. N WINDS 
INCREASE TO 20 KT GULF OF PANAMA MIDDAY MON. GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT THEN 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT SUN.    

$$
LL