000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020822
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 8N86W 6N100W 4N120W 4N130W. NO 
SIGNFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

QUASI-STATIONARY POSITIVE TILT MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH 
JUST WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N140W TO 11N155W 
REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW TO THE N. TROUGH AXIS 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WRN PORTION OF AREA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT 
DEVELOPING NE PACIFIC/ALEUTIAN BAROCLINIC SYSTEM PROVIDES A 
KICK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MID- UPPER MOISTURE PATTERN AS 
SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ADVECTS PLUM OF MOISTURE OVER ENTIRE WRN 
AREA...CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA/NRN MX AND INTO 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W OVER AREA TO 
12N117W SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OVER THE WRN CARIB THIS 
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL 
LIKELY ALSO SPREAD E TO AROUND 115W.

...AT THE SURFACE...

THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS S OF 29N...WITH A FEW 30 KT 
VECTORS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SWATH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG NE TO E 
TRADES PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG NLY WINDS MAINTAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE S. CA/BAJA 
PENINSULA COASTS. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE TOWARDS THE N. CA 
COAST...HOWEVER STRONG NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
ROBERTS