000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010838
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 5N86W 4N101W 6N123W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 
90W.

...DISCUSSION...

QUASI-STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH JUST W OF AREA 
ALONG 149W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEP LAYER 
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE 
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. CONSEQUENTLY...THE MID TO UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL REGION NEAR 12N108W SHOULD 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TO A POSITION A FEW HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 9N92W. EXPECT PERSISTENT LARGE PLUME OF 
MID- UPPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL 
JET PROPAGATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO ADVECT 
EASTWARD TO AROUND 110W BY SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. 
STRONG UPPER CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW DUE TO MERGING POLAR FINGER 
AND SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NRN AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE OVER NE AREA/NRN BAJA PENINSULA.

...AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ITCZ 
RAINFALL...WITH RATHER SMALL AREA OF ACTIVITY A FEW HUNDRED 
MILES SW OF COSTA RICA. STRONG NE TRADE BREEZE PERSISTS OVER 
MAJORITY OF AREA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINS STRENGTH DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
ROBERTS