000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 6N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 
130W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF 8N135.5W.  

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA 
E OF 135W. ANTICYCLONE ACTUALLY CONSISTED OF 2 CENTERS...THE 
FIRST NEAR 8N115W AND THE SECOND CENTER MUCH FURTHER EAST NEAR 
4N95W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE AREA S 
OF 20N AND E OF 120W. 

THE RIDGE WAS BEING ERODED FROM THE WEST BY A DEEP 
QUASI-STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N137W TO 7N155W. A PRONOUNCED 
SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND 
SLICING ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA WAS PRODUCING A 
WIDESPREAD PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA W OF 122W. ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE WAS IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WAS 
ALSO ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO 
ALONG 31N/32N. TROUGH CONTINUED TO PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO 28N135W. ELSEWHERE AT THE 
SURFACE...FRESH TRADES PERSIST W OF 130W AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MODERATE TO 
STRONG NLY FLOW SPILLS OVER THE CA/CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORE 
WATERS.  

GAP WINDS...
ONLY POTENTIAL AREA FOR GAP WIND ACTIVITY IS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WHERE NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN 24 HOURS 
AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEYOND THAT. 

$$
COBB