000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 7N83W 6N95W 6N106W 4N116W 6N126W 5N130W 
6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N83W 6N87W AND 6N90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
7N110W TO 3N122W TO 7N127W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 5N128W 5N132W 
AND 6N137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL WLY N OF 20N DURING THE PAST 
24 HR. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE N OF 25N THE PAST 
SEVERAL HRS. A BIG MID LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA AND IS 
MOVING ESE. S OF 20N A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. A 
SUBTROPIC JET EMINATES S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CURVES NE AND E 
AROUND THE RIDGE AND HEADS EWD ALONG 25N ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED NW OF THE 
REGION EXTENDS SE TO 5N AND W OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADES 25 TO 30 KT FROM 9N TO 25N W OF 125W ACCORDING TO SSMI 
AND QUIKSCAT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 06Z FORECAST. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE ALSO QUITE BRISK AT 20 TO 25 KT 
ACCORDING TO THE MICROWAVE DATA AND TWO SHIPS CONFIRM THESE 
WINDS AND ALSO REPORT SEAS OF 9 FT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 
THE WAVE WATCH MODEL. ALL GAP WINDS TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT.  

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL APPROXIMATELY 30 METERS ALONG 
30N AS THE STRONG TROUGH WELL N OF THE REGION SWINGS ESE TOWARD 
THE W COAST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 15N AND THE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AT MID LEVELS RESULTING IN SOME STRENGTHENING 
OF THE SUBTROPIC JET. THE JET HAS PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS WITH IT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT A 
TWO MILLIBAR DECREASE IN THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A DECREASE IN 
THE STRENGTH OF THE NE TRADES AS WELL AS WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST. NW SWELL OF 10 TO 14 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE WITH 
GAP WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY AS THE 
STRONG TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE W COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OF 50 
METERS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL ALONG 30N. THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 18N. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES 
CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE REGION 
ALONG 140W UNDER THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPIC JET. THIS WILL INSURE 
A CONTINUANCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 15N AND 25N EWD. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE W OF 130W AND THE GFS MODEL SHOWS NE TRADES INCREASING 
BACK TO 25 TO 30 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 130W WITH SEAS TO 
12 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 15 TO 
20 KT WITH NW SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT. SOME POSSIBLE INCREASE IN NE 
WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR WHERE STRONG ELY WINDS 
CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN..OTHERWISE OTHER 
GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG