000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  6N77W  5N105W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 5N124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 3N93W 
DOMINATES FLOW ALOFT...EXCEPT MINOR UPPER TROUGH FROM 14N90W TO 
1N82W.  JET CORE OF 125 KT BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS E 
PAC AND CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE COLD FRONT 
CONVERTS IT IMMEDIATELY INTO CONVECTION.  RIDGE KEEPS MOISTURE
N OF 17N W OF 115W AND FAIRLY DRY ELSEWHERE.  WINDS N OF 20N 
REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITHIN 24 HRS AS 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NOW 29N131W AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH 
HEAD NE INTO FORECAST WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...LARGE HIGH PRES 1032 MB AT 33N144W DRIFT E WITH 
NE TRADES DIMINISHING WITHIN 24-36 HR.  LINGERING NW SWELLS FROM 
LOW PRES N OF AREA ENCROACH INTO E PAC BASIN ALL THE WAY TO THE 
EQUATOR W OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
MOST GAPS WINDS HAVE DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT EXCEPT STUBBORN GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WHERE THEY COULD LAST 12-18 HRS MORE.

$$
WALLY BARNES