000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 6N98W 5N114W 5N124W 2N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 4N111W AND WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6N121W TO 
6N126W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM 5N133W TO 
5N139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG JETS AND THE 
ABSENCE OF TROUGHS. A SUBTROPIC JET CONTINUES FROM NEAR 20N140W 
ENE OVER LOWER BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
WAS NOTED ALONG 120W RIDING ESE ON THE HEELS OF A POLAR JET JUST 
N OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTERED NW OF THE REGION EXTENDS SE TO 15N105W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES 25 TO 30 KT FROM 9N TO 20N W OF 120W 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. BOTH SHOW WINDS TO 25 KT AS FAR 
N AS 27N W OF 130W. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ 
WHERE SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT. STRONGEST GAP WINDS S OF PANAMA AT 
15 TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT 
MOVES TO 110W. WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGHS..MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE. THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS W TO 20N140W AND IS WORKING IT'S 
WAY NW. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE APPEARS TO 
BACK OFF SOME..REDUCING THE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND OVER 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH NE SWELL 
TO 14 FT S OF 20N W OF 130W. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

FOR DAY 2 A STRONG ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF 22N E 
OF 130W. THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 16N W TO 
125W. A NEW STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPEARS ON THE HORIZON WELL NW 
OF THE REGION AND WILL BEGIN LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY 
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE FOLLOWING 24 HRS. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
WEAKEN AND NE TRADES DIMINISH SOME. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE 
CONFINED TO BETWEEN 9N AND 18N W OF 125W WITH NE SWELL 10 TO 13 
FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NWLY 15 TO 20 KT. GAP 
WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS WILL BE 
MOSTLY LIGHT.  

$$
RRG