000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250437
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W  5N92W  3N110W  5N132W  4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 5N113W CONTROLS ENTIRE MID/ 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 110W.  LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE W OF 115W 
MOVE NE OF UPSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGE DRAGGED BY 110 KT JET CORE.  
MOISTURE HEADING ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NRN MEXICO N OF 
25N WHERE STRONG COLD FRONT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CAN 
CERTAINLY PRODUCE MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE 
IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER S TEXAS HEADING E TOWARDS 
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.   

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N97W TO 7N107W...CONTRIBUTOR TO 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S OF TEXAS...PROVIDES CONVERGING FLOW S OF 
20N E OF RIDGE CENTER WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CAUSING DRY 
AIRMASS OVER REGION TO CENTRAL AMERICA COAST.  WRN FRINGES OF 
RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA COMPLETES DRY PICTURE OVER E PAC UPPER 
LEVELS.

AT THE SURFACE...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE RAPIDLY WEAKENING EXTEND SE TO 17N112W 
STILL CURTAILS MUCH OF VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ITCZ ABLE TO 
SNEAK MINOR CONVECTION AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. RIDGE ALSO 
INCREASING NW FLOW FUNNELING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA REACHING 25 
KT BUT LACK THE FETCH TO RAISE SEA HEIGHTS.  SIMILARLY STRONG 
TRADES W OF 120W AND LARGE NW SWELL TRAINS CONTINUE ENCROACHING 
INTO E PAC BASIN.  

GAP WINDS IN GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO BOTH ON DOWNWARD TREND 
SHOULD BE UNDER 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES