000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  6N77W  4N110W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 7N116W CONTROLS ENTIRE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 110W.  LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE W OF 
120W MOVE NE OF UPSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGE DRAGGED BY 110 KT JET 
CORE.  MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NRN 
MEXICO N OF 25N WHERE STRONG COLD FRONT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
CAN CERTAINLY PRODUCE MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION JUST S OF TEXAS BIG 
BEND HEADING E TOWARDS TEXAS SRN TIP AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO 
WATERS.   

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N102W TO 6N105W...CONTRIBUTOR TO 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT S OF TEXAS...PROVIDES CONVERGING FLOW S OF 
20N E OF RIDGE CENTER WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CAUSING DRY 
AIRMASS OVER REGION TO CENTRAL AMERICA COAST.  WRN FRINGES OF 
RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA COMPLETES DRY PICTURE OVER E PAC UPPER 
LEVELS.

AT THE SURFACE...
LARGE HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTER AT 32N133W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
15N105W CURTAILING MUCH OF VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  ITCZ IS 
ABLE TO SNEAK MINOR CONVECTION AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. 
RIDGE ALSO INCREASING NW FLOW FUNNELING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
REACHING 25 KT BUT LACK THE FETCH TO RAISE SEA HEIGHTS.  
SIMILARLY STRONG TRADES W OF 120W AND LARGE NW SWELL TRAINS 
CONTINUE ENCROACHING INTO E PAC BASIN.  

GAP WINDS IN GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 
HRS BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES