000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 5N90W 4N110W 5N130W 3N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N104W 4N107W 3N110W 5N119W 5N122W 
6N125W AND 6N127W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS IS A STRONG CUTOFF 
LOW MOVING E OVER THE SW U.S. AND NRN MEXICO. A SUBTROPIC JET 
CONTINUES FROM 13N140W TO 20N120W TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE MID 
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY W OF 120W AND DECREASES. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT AN OLD DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER 
MEXICO. NLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTERED JUST NW OF THE REGION EXTENDS SE OVER THE AREA N OF 5N 
W OF 105W. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS NE TRADES 25 TO 30 KT FROM 6N 
TO 18N W OF 125W. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AND S OF 
PANAMA ARE MOSTLY 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE E OF 
120W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE TO 
130W. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 
140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ TO 25 KT WHILE REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME OFF THE BAJA 
COAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NE TRADES. GAP WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT.

FOR DAY 2 A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE E OF 
120W N OF 20N. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SWLY 
W OF 120W. A FLAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA S OF 20N E 
OF 140W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. GAP WINDS 
CHANGE LITTLE. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. NE TRADES REMAIN 
BRISK AT 25 TO 30 KT FROM 8N TO 24N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 
FT.

$$
RRG