000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240415
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  2N79W  7N89W  2N107W  6N125W  3N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 
111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N109W TO 4N107W SPLITS E PAC 
BROAD RIDGING HALFWAY.  LARGE AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED AT 8N119W BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN WIDE SWATH WITH 
90 KT JET CORE AND MEANDERING THROUGH CENTRAL E PAC TO SRN TIP 
OF BAJA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS.  MOISTURE PUT INTO 
USE BY LOW PRES 998 MB OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ATTENDANT 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING UNDER 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 

DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N87W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS 
OVER BASIN E OF 98W N OF 6N AND CONTRIBUTES TO DIFFLUENT FLOW 
OVER TEXAS.   

...AT THE SURFACE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS ENTIRE  
E PAC S OF 10N...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND 
UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW WITHIN 3 DEG OF AXIS.  LACK OF OTHER 
SURFACE UPLIFTING MECHANISMS ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IN ITCZ FLARE 
UPS.  HIGH PRES RIDGE 1030 MB 33N144W MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER 
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH MAINLY STRATIFIED BROKEN 
CLOUDS NOTED N OF 15N W OF 113W.   

GULF OF CALIFORNIA NWLY WIND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD BUILDING SWELLS ALONG ITS FUNNELED AXIS AND 
EXITING SRN TIP OF BAJA SAT THEN SUBSIDE BY SUN.
 
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 20 KT AND 
LINGERING NE SWELL MOVE W AND BELOW 8 FT.  NOT CERTAIN IF NEXT 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK ITS NLY WINDS 
ACROSS ISTHMUS WITHIN FORECAST PERIOD.  

BRISK ELY TRADES IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BRIDGE W INTO GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.  NO ABATEMENT EXPECTED THERE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  

GULF OF PANAMA N WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS GRADIENT 
REMAINS TIGHT WITH 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. 

$$
WALLY BARNES