000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  2N78W  7N86W  4N98W  6N117W  5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N95W 3N100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 1N110W 
7N118W 9N130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N113W TO 2N107W SPLITS E PAC 
BROAD RIDGING HALFWAY.  LARGE AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED AT 8N121W BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN A WIDE SWATH WITH 
90 KT JET CORE AND MEANDERING THROUGH CENTRAL E PAC TO SRN TIP 
OF BAJA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS.  MOISTURE PUT INTO 
USE BY STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER E TEXAS TO DEVELOP LINE OF 
CONVECTION UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED AT 12N94W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS OVER BASIN E OF 115W N 
OF 7N.   

...AT THE SURFACE...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS ENTIRE E 
PAC S OF 10N...ONLY INTERRUPTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND 
UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW WITHIN 3 DEG OF AXIS.  LACK OF OTHER 
SURFACE UPLIFTING MECHANISMS ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IN ITCZ FLARE 
UPS.  HIGH PRES RIDGE 1032 MB 33N144W MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER 
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS WITH MAINLY STRATIFIED BROKEN 
CLOUDS NOTED N OF 15N W OF 115W.   

SEA OF CORTEZ NWLY WIND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD POSSIBLY BUILDING SWELLS ALONG ITS FUNNELED AXIS AND 
EXITING SAT THEN SUBSIDE BY SUN.
 
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 20 KT AND 
LINGERING NE SWELL MOVE W AND BELOW 8 FT BY NOW.  NOT CERTAIN IF 
NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK ITS NLY 
WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS WITHIN FORECAST PERIOD.  

BRISK ELY TRADES IN SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BRIDGE W INTO GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.  NO ABATEMENT EXPECTED THERE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  

GULF OF PANAMA N WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS GRADIENT 
REMAINS TIGHT WITH 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. 


$$
WALLY BARNES