000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 7N86W 4N98W 6N117W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N93W 3N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 4N112W 7N120W 9N130W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES WESTERN N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N117W TO A BASE NEAR 23N114W AND ROTATING NE WITH TIME. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLING ALONG 32N114W TO 25N122W WITH HIGH PRES BRIDGING THROUGH THE FRONT FROM A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N148W INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N135W 12N108W. AN ILL DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N130W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A FLAT CREST ALONG POINTS 27N143W 27N131W. A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO THE E PAC TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N1170W... WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 109W AND 130W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN ROUGHLY 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N106W 25N119W 31N132W 29N141W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME... ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION THAT FLARED BETWEEN 120W AND 143W...IS TRAPPER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 6N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 142W AND CONTINUES NE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 17N120W TO BEYOND 32N95W. GAP WINDS... BELIEVE THE FINAL NLY SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH NLY SWELL SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. THE NEXT NLY SURGE OF ONLY 20 KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 20 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL SURGE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TODAY AND SUPPORT NW 20 TO 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ SAT THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT SUN. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL POSSIBLE AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. $$ NELSON