000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 7N87W 3N97W 6N113W 6N140W. CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 3N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N111W TO 7N117W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
NEAR 9N124W 8N128W AND 8N129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG 120W WAS MOVING E 25 KT TONIGHT. 
A SUBTROPIC JET FROM NEAR 20N140W CURVES NE AND E TO 23N120W 
THEN NE TO CENTRAL BAJA AND NW MEXICO. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS SRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NW BAJA SW 
TO 27N120W TO 24N130W TO 22N140W. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW 
SCATTERED LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM BACK OF THE FRONT. THE 
PACIFIC HIGH BACK NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS SW OVER THE REGION 
TONIGHT AND IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 25 KT FROM 8N TO 20N W OF 
120W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE 
NW 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCORDING TO 
QUIKSCAT. ONE SHIP OB AT 06Z JUST W OF CAPE LAZARO HAD NW WINDS 
25 KT. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA WERE NE TO E 20 TO 25 
KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING E TO NEAR 
112W WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE S OF 15N EXTENDS BACK OVER THE REGION 
TO 135W. SOME MID LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG 140W. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUMP NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE NE TRADES. GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN AB0UT THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TO 100W AND AWAY 
FROM THE REGION. A MOSTLY WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF 
20N WEAKENING W OF 130W. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE S 
OF 20N OVER THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION N OF 8N W OF 105W. LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE NE TRADES OR WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. GAP WINDS W OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND S OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE N TO NE 20 KT.

$$
RRG