000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222150
TWDEP 

8TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 3N100W 7N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
6N109W 9N119W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N128W 3N144W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PAC WITH ITS MEAN AXIS 
S OF 35N ALONG 127W TO A BASE NEAR 16N130W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N137W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO A BASE NEAR 24N134W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD 
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N121W 26N136W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 
120 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW MID LAYERED CLOUDS BEHIND ITS FRONTAL 
EDGE BUT LACKING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ALONG THE W BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH A GENTLE CREST ALONG 23N146W 24N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS NEAR 16N90W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO THE E PAC TO A 
SHARP CREST AT 11N130W...WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 109W AND 118W.  

DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN ROUGHLY 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 32N112W 27N120W 27N140W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 127W AND 149W...IS 
NOTED FROM 2N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 148W AND CONTINUES NE 
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 15N130W TO BEYOND 32N99W. 
 
GAP WINDS...
NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
BRIDGE W INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH FRI 
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SAT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI.

$$
NELSON