000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 2N78W 5N87W 3N93W 4N101W 5N112W 
5.5N125W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 128W TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEAR 
32N111W 20N123W 24N140W.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS WITHIN THE 
TROUGH WITH AN AXIS ALONG 127W. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST 
MEXICO IN 24 HOURS. SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE 
SHORTWAVE BUT THE TROUGH AREA IS CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 
WITH OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
THE TROUGH. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE 20N100W 20N110W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
128W IS NOTABLE DRY ALOFT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.  THE AREA BETWEEN THIS LINE AND THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH IS MOIST ALOFT WITH BROKEN MIDDLE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS IN THIS AREA.

SURFACE...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS ALONG LINE 32N124W 
TO 26N140W.

WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W.  WEAK TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA INCLUDING THE ITCZ REGION.

GAP WINDS...
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL HAVE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND PAPAGAYO 
REGION WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH 48 
HOURS. PAPAGAYO IS ON GOING AND THE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS BEGAN 
TODAY.

$$
LL