000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N78W 3N93W 2N99W 6N112W 6N130W 5N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N90W 7N104W AND 8N112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 7N128W TO 5N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W N OF 20N IS MOVING E 35 KT. 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER MEXICO WHILE A SECOND RIDGE 
LIES W OF THE AREA ALONG 155W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD 
FRONT WAS BRUSHING BY THE AREA N OF 27N WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
NEAR 26N123W WAS PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT FROM 5N TO 20N 
W OF 115W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 15 KT WHILE GAP 
WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AND S OF PANAMA MOSTLY 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PICTURE 
EXCEPT FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT TO 125W. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO 30N123W 27N130W WITH 20 
KT WINDS AND NW SWELL 9 TO 12 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC 
HIGH AND NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NW 15 
KT WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT ALONG THE COAST N OF 28N. GAP WINDS 
MAINLY NELY 20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES E TO ALONG 115W 
AND INLAND OVER CA/AZ. THE MID LEVEL FLOW S OF 30N BECOMES MORE 
WLY WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST W OF 140W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 
2 THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. NW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL WORK IT'S WAY 
S JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST. NE TRADES WILL INCREASE WITH THE 
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 120W WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. GAP WINDS W OF 
NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AND S OF PANAMA WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT. 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.

$$
RRG