000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 5N77W 6N89W 4N100W 7N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 1ON W OF 120W. 
AN EMBEDDED SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING 
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 37N132W 
SWD TO NEAR 28N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 90-120 
NM WIDE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING 1022 MB SFC HIGH WAS NEAR 
27N134W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ 
AND W OF 105W. 

AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDS FROM 18N140W ENEWD THROUGH 
21N125W-NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE SW CONUS. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 110-125 KT W OF 135W. JET 
WAS ADVECTING MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NEWD AND 
WITHIN WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N126W NEWD TO 
26N113W/BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM POLEWARD OF THE JET AXIS
W OF 120W.

A NARROW UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 10N110W...AND IS 
SEPARATED FROM A MORE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN 
EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EXTREME W 
CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC ALONG 12N/13N. A 
SMALL UPPER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS N ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 101W 
TO NEAR 9N104W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERED CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND EXTENDED WWD OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 105W AND WAS 
SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION. 
  
GAP WINDS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE E PAC WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR 
SO AND PRODUCE NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH FRI MORNING. BRISK 
ELY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRIDGE W INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT AND SWD INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH FRI. IN ADDITION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT 
LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER THE SEAS OF CORTEZ WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI.

$$
COBB