000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG  4N78W  5N85W  2N100W  
5N125W  3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 96W TO 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS FROM 32N100W TO 20N140W 
BRINGING ALONG 85 KT JET CORE ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO S PART OF 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE VERY WELL 
ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER SRN INTRUSION 
OF TROUGH.  RIDGE EXTENSION COVERS MOST E PAC E OF 120W SE OF 
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE BRINGS MINOR CONVECTION NEAR 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG 100W S OF 5N.  OTHERWISE LITTLE MOISTURE TO 
WORK WITH AND ONLY LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED COVERAGE. 

SURFACE...
WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE 1026 MB AT 30N136W WILL MOVE SE AND 
CONTINUE WEAKENING ALLOWING TRADES TO SUBSIDE TEMPORARILY. 
WEAK COLD FRONT N OF 25N WILL REACH 122W THEN SHIFT NE AS RIDGE 
REBUILDS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULFS OF PANAMA AND TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN WITH ONLY 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA REMAINING STUBBORNLY LEFT...ALBEIT 
WEAKER. 

STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 30 
HOURS BUT REMAINING WELL UNDER GALE FORCE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES