000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210403 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LINE 3N78W 4N100W 5N115W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N100W TO 15N140W. A SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS MOVING EWD 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS FROM 20N TO 25N W OF 125W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDS FROM 17N135W ENEWD THROUGH 22N135W CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 120-140 KT. THIS JTST WAS ADVECTING A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE TROUGH AREA AND THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH ARE CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE... MODERATE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. A 1028 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 31N139W. GAP WINDS... A 2330 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ONLY 15 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 HOURS BUT ONLY REACHING 20-25 KT. $$ COBB